Divergence in Index

There is a divergence of Price and Volume(TO) happening in index!!! Interesting to see that new buyers are not coming in much! Or,we have got a lot of ‘old buyers’ caught at the rise of previous tops! We may see a pullback in index led by banks? Or the opposite may also happen…..

There is no exit signal yet,btw,from any indicators!!

I am being cautious at the moment. Checking out sectors for trade. At the moment,except Government sector,no other sectors seem to be lucrative!! Banks might go for a pullback pulling the index down,though the opposite may also happen.

 

 

Bank sector broke down!! Other sectors holding!

I was observing Bank sector closely last couple of days. I was curious to see how market would evaluate banks. It looks like,market is not preferring banks at the moment. This however makes sense,given the bad news regarding banks!

Clearly,bank sector has broken down from the low of 2017! And it is yet to be seen where its bottom is gonna be! Not sure yet!!

 

 

Today,suddenly,Cement sector had heavily risen. Well……That is a very big rise!!! 😀

 

 

Textile sector is still in uptrend. There is no pullback,no consolidation yet. Let’s see where this sector takes rest!! Lovely uptrend! The upward move is a mix of fall and rise,making the rise strong! There seems to be no ‘resistance’ in this sector yet. So,sky seems to be the limit!!

 

Today,another burst happened in IT sector…It broke out and keeping the uptrend alive for a while. Lovely move by this sector,too. It may pullback for a while,however,from profit taking…..

 

 

Nothing interesting is happening in Government sector. Looks like,this sector’s game is over for now!

 

General Insurance could become the potential sector for rise in future. Though,there is no noticable move yet. But this is the only sector that hasn’t done any move yet. So,there is a chance for it to rise. Should be observed closely!

 

Power sector may go for a consolidation phaze or it may breakout. Only time will say! But it is not yet giving any exit signal…

 

I thought,Finance will follow Banks and fall down with banks. But strangely,Finance is holding its ground. It is not breaking down yet….Rather,buying interest is increasing in it….Very strange and interesting situation. Let’s see what happens to this sector in coming days….Would be interesting if Finance rises without banks! 🙂

The TAs of bangladesh

I never had any issue with the FA(Fundamental Analysts) guys. I personally want the FA guys to dominate the Bangladesh Stock market. Why? Simply because that way,charts reading will get better for TAs. When the FA guys influence the market, market,by the help of FA,will move rationally and in a better way. If market moves rationally,it will be easier for a TA to analyse charts.

 

Actually,DSE is not dominated by the TAs or FAs. DSE is dominated by ‘illiteracy,ignorance,blindness,biases,greed and fear’ of the traders! Majority(may be around 70%) of the traders in DSE is still “Tip” based,rumor based traders. TAs are not at all the dominant trader in DSE yet. I think,TAs in DSE will never be the dominant one….TA actually doesn’t go with the culture and nature of the people of this country.

 

The TAs you see around you in online community are mostly the most experienced ones……However,the TAs you might encounter in most other groups or in real life are either novice or ‘rubbish’. Most of the so called TAs in Bangladesh are basically not TAs in the real sense. They have no indepth knowledge of TA. They just look at a chart,because they think TA is trendy and magical. They have no interest in learning TA indepth!

 

Seeing charts is not TA. There are far more to TA than just to check out a chart. For example,the basic and core of real TA is money management. You will not see talks about MM in any TA community,which will give you a clear idea the condition of TA in this country!

** A conversation between me and Shuvo bhai in a trading group.

Struggle of Technical Analysts in Bangladesh – Part 2

In recent times,DSE has closed the ‘mst’ file from which we,TAs,would extract EOD data.

Now,that is another unnecessary blow to the world of TA!!

They have tried to stop the TAs to get EOD data. NOT INTRADAY. It is EOD data. A very astonishing step to take. Because EOD data is generally kept free in most stock exchanges in the world.

Why the heck they would do that? There is basically no ‘rational’ reason,actually,except for “EXPLOITING” the TAs to give them ‘money’! Yes,it is all about ‘money’! They are demanding an irrational amount of 60,000 taka for anyone to get EOD data from them. Now,that kind of ‘GREED’ shows how fucked up this country and its institutions are!!

TAs in BD are not superrich,neither they are in plenty!!! Why exploit such a small group of people!?!?!?

Yes,all exchanges of sell data to third party vendors. But those datas are of Intraday. NOT EOD!!!

All exchanges of the world make EOD data available for the traders,even if through the vendors,free!!. For example,you can easily download EOD data from Yahoo and Google without any charge. But you cannot download Intraday data from them. I developed tools to download EOD data from Google and Yahoo for free. But I cannot download Intraday data free of cost….(though,Metatrader gives you both Intraday and EOD data free of cost of Forex market,biggest financial market of the world).

EOD and Intraday-that is the difference.

EOD data,which DSE wants to restrict,must be free even through the so called ‘vendors’,as it is our right(we pay tax and commission….remember?). We are not asking anything free!!! We pay tax and commission,and hence we have the right to get EOD data/data of the stock movements.

BUT like all exchanges of the world,DSE can and SHOULD charge for Intraday data only. I/we have no objection in this regard! At first,know the different types of data being provided by the vendors/exchange…and the different types of data that we TAs ‘need’!

The basic rule is,you can get the “OHLCV” Eod data from any exchange. But if you want ‘data feed’ of EOD or Intraday you have to use “API” provided by the vendors.And that vendor could charge(not charge) for the API,as they have server to maintain.You are paying for the server mostly,not for the EOD data(ie.google doesn’t charge for EOD data)…..But when it comes to intraday data,you have to ‘pay’.

Here is an example of Bombay Stock Exchange which has kept EOD data open for anyone in the world to get FREELY….Here!

Even though,we TAs found other ‘means’ to extract EOD data,it is NOT fair to try to EXPLOIT us for just getting ‘money’!!

Shouldn’t Dhaka Stock Exchange be ‘trader friendly’? I rest this question to the future TAs and think over what DSE/SEC is doing against us in an unfair way!!

FUCK IT…..We will be alive,shining and kicking,as we have been been doing since 2007 onwards….!!!

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This is the second part of my two parts articles on the condition of TAs in Bangladesh! Here is the first part

 

 

 

More falls on the way!!

Index broke down from a very important support level. And now,it seems,index is on its way to more falls. It failed to hold itself at the support level and broke down!

Fundamentally strong stocks are suffering heavily. Low paid ups are rising! It looks like,low paid up will also join in coming weeks in the fall with high paid ups. Well,it is inevitable anyway;after all,what goes up must come down.

Good thing is,after all so called low paids are played(and even may be,Z will be played sometimes),better stocks,that are falling now,would be played,too…

The problem is,index needs to go down a lot if it can go up again. Because in many stocks,there are a lot of losers. And if index tries to go up,they will keep dumping it.

Anyway,right now,TAs might curiously observe the index!

 

An abrupt fall of index!!

In my 10+ years of trading and TA journey,I never saw such abrupt fall by index at the bottom level. Moreover,a couple of sector just was about to rise! If index breaks down from its last low 5320,it will be amuzing and a big number of traders will get caught! Simply unbelievable!

I consider this a memorable event….So,I’m keeping a log of it!!

 

DSEX from May to September

Historically,index has higher chances to rise anytime from May till September. This time slot is the best time for getting involved in trading in DSE! June(at the beginning of June) is however not that ‘good’ month in DSE. Index usually gets slower during this time;may be,because of Budget issue……!

Things have been a little gloomy this year for DSE. Index has been falling since Dec/2017 and till today(last day of May),index has been losing every month! That means,index is down and has been lossing its points for six months in a raw! This is interesting. Here is how much index has been losing every month(in percentail basis):

Dec/2017: -1%
Jan/2018: -4%
Feb/2018: -3%
Mar/2018: -0.1%
April/2018: -2%
May/2018: -5.5%

 

Above data shows that market has been pretty gloomy during last six months! It is therefore wise to take the next step to enter the market very carefully. We should be negatively positive about the market! 😀

Index is trying to stop its fall at a support level,making things more confusing and interesting at the same time. We have seen ‘buys’ last couple of days in many stocks. May be,it will be clear within next week,what the heck index is actually trying to show! Well,after all,just because ‘buys’ happen by some big guys doesn’t mean,things will become bullish. No………Overall market has to be ‘bullish’ at the same time!!

It takes considerable ‘struggle’ and strength for a reversal to happen. When a stock or index goes from bullish to bearish or bearish to bullish,it needs enough strength and time to do the reversal….This time or point of index/stock is crucial. But when the stock/index sets its motion or start its trend,things become smoother and stable…..

 

Better to wait and watch carefully some more!!

 

 

Index trying to pause or stop its fall

Index had a good day today. It seems to be trying to stop its fall at this level. Current level of index coincides with 50% Fibonacci level and 200 Days WMA in weekly chart. Interesting!! It seems,index “may” not go below 5200 level(for now).

This could however very well be a ‘dead cat’ bounce. We are not sure! That is the beauty of trading! We are never sure,and we will always have to take our chances.

I am putting together a list of stocks to be watched and perhaps bought,if things go well. Today,I got “Shepherd”,which I wanted to buy some days ago! Shepherd had clearly shown accumulation phaze in weekly chart! But anyway,here is my watchlist for now:

• Acmelab
• Mhsml
• aamranet
• Citybank
• Dbbl
• Doreenpower
• Fekdil
• Kdsaltd
• Islamicfin

Let’s see how things go!!! 🙂

 

 

Best time to trade a stock!!

The best time to enter the stock market is: when one feels utterly ‘hopeless and depressed’ about the future moves of the stocks and the overall market and feels strongly that the market is NOT gonna go up ever again! Not when one feels ‘confident,euphoric and hopeful’. Especially,if one is a bottom hunter or mid or long term trader!

I learned this the hard way! After 2010’s crash of Dhaka Stock Exchange,I waited and waited. I was so hopeful about making money in the market,as it was falling. I had been waiting for so long for the market to fall in 2010. Because I am not a breakout trader,rather a bottom hunter(this suits my personality!),I wanted a market that was going down. And 2010’s crash triggered downtrend. I was ‘happy’ after the ‘crash’ of 2010! Crash could not do any harm to my portfolio. I was desiring a crash! Because I knew,if it goes down,it will go up!

However,the problem happened when I was not getting the ‘bottom’ of the market and time was ‘running’ out(for me). Or,the market was testing my patience!!! “Time” got me! I started to believe that market will not ‘rise’ again. Not possible! I was so depressed and hopeless!!! I started to believe that DSE is a hopeless place and I should quit the market,as it will never ever go up again!

How wrong I was!!!

And after three years of fall/downtrend,in 2013,market started to show strength. Market started to make higher highs and higher lows-something that I dreamed of seeing after 2010 crash!!

But because of my depressive attitude and hopelessness,I gave up the market just before it started to rise in 2013! I left just before market bottomed out!! Amazing!!! I was so negative about the market that I didn’t even look at it for next three years! How fun was it! 🙂

What is more amazing is: when I joined the market again in 2017,It was the time of  market’s top! Though,I didn’t trade much and I wanted to go slow,I felt as if market was playing with my ‘mind’ and I was being tricked! As if market ‘knew’ what I would be doing,and how to trap me! 🙂

And I needed to reverse what my ‘mind’ feels and what the market shows!

Now,when I feel too confident and hopeful about the market(at its top),I pause and look at the market and deny what I ‘feel’! And vice versa!

Our feelings,our institutions can be tricky and false most of the times! A mind ,that hasn’t been highly trained, will be susceptible to ‘greed and fear’ and act accordingly. But then,that trained mind could also make mistakes! After all,things are very unpredictable and non-linear,especially in stock market….

 

Lesson learned! That is what matters the most!!

 

 

 

Stocks falling with higher volume!

It is fun to see how a lot of stocks have fallen with higher volume last day! Even index fell with 25% higher volume last day. This shows how traders in the market seem to have been ‘negative’ and selling being panic! This type of situation is always funny! Simply because index will surely rebound(today or tomorrow). All these panic sellers actually quickly realize that they were wrong in their sell at the low! 🙂

Here is Index that fell with 25% higher TO than previous day!