Mnemonics and stock trading: psychological biases

My checklist for the trading psychology! I use the following to check out my own psychology and the psychology of the market,when I try to enter or exit a market,and when I check out the charts. For example,the “Hindsight Bias” is an amazing psychological issue that all chartists suffer from(including myself).

I find the following biases quite helpful in my own trading. So,I just memorized them with the help of ‘mnemonics’. There are other psychological biases too,which I want to memorize in future……

The biases:

  1. Herd mentality – Herd
  2. Anchoring bias – Anchor
  3. Hindsight bias – Hand
  4. Priming affect – Pump
  5. Confirmation bias – Con icecream
  6. Over Optimism bias – Optimus prime
  7. Illusion of control – Trolly
  8. Self Attribution Bias – Book selve
  9. Memory Misinformation Bias – Brain
  10. Loss aversion – lacchi

Mnemonics and stock trading: patterns and rules

Mnemonics and stock trading: patterns and rules

Mnemonics and stock trading: introduction

I have known about ‘mnemonic’ techniques since 2015,but I have been implementing mnemonic techniques seriously since 2018! And I love mnemonic techniques. It has helped me in every aspect of life.

I am implementing “mnemonics” techniques in my trading for last couple of months with great success. So,I thought,I would share some ideas on how I apply mnemonics in trading here. Even though stock and currency market are very big and complex, I did not get any articles in the net that discusses how we can implement mnemonic techniques in our stock and currency trading.

Trading is a very very complex thing,especially as it deals with unpredictability of future,which brain has a very hard time to make sense of….

Even though I have been able to make consistent profits in stock market,I had not been satisfied with the way I organize,manage and apply my trading stuffs,trading knowledge,experiences,etc in trading.

For example,I write blogs,personal trading journals(evernote,notion,etc) on my trading quite frequently. But when I need a very specific information on an important trade that I executed in past,I have to search my journals pages. I have to look for how I reacted to certain patterns of the stock and what happened later,etc. This is not an efficient way,as I have to take very very fast decision during ‘live trade’. I have to keep the most important details in my memory so I can access them anytime I want during trading.

Besides,as “Zettelkasten Method” rightly suggests,just by writing and storing journals,articles,we cannot develop knowledge on a subject. We need to evaluate,analyse and connect the valid and related articles and ideas to one another! And I think,with Memory Palace,I can do just that in my trading.

So,I have decided to keep all of my important trading stuffs in my head with the help of mnemonics.

There are three areas that I work on everyday for my trading in stocks or currency. They are:

  1. Patterns/General Rules
  2. Psychology
  3. Journaling(for feedback and analysis)

I will be writing on how I use mnemonic techniques for each of these subject.

Other related Articles on this:

Mnemonics and stock trading: patterns and rules

Mnemonics and stock trading: psychological biases

Behavioural Investing: A Practitioner’s Guide to Applying Behavioural Finance

I read the book last year. I am re-reading this book. And I found this book quite amazing. Most of the points that this book puts forward are familiar to me,as I suffered from them in my own trading!

Human behavior is almost always the same everywhere! And we traders also act and react to the market in a certain way.

For example,in the following passage,the author rightly points out a very important behavior of the traders,investors in the market:

Neuroscientists have recently uncovered two particular traits of significance to investors. The first is that we are hard-wired for the short term. We tend to find the chance of short<term gains very attractive. They appear to stimulate the emotional centres of the brain, and release dopamine. This makes us feel confident, stimulated, and generally good

Here is another important point. This point is very important because of the way we suffer from FOMO in the market:

The second is that we appear to be hard-wired to herd. The pain of social exclusion (i.e. betting against everyone else) is felt in exactly the same parts of the brain that feel real physical pain. So pursuing contrarian strategies is a little bit like having your arm broken on a regular basis!

A great book!!!!

I have made a summery of the book for myself which can be found in this link:

https://www.notion.so/elitely/Behavioural-Investing-A-Practitioner-s-Guide-to-Applying-Behavioural-Finance-Montier-James-97804-817368bca1ca4a808c7c4ab313fde185


Here is the link to the book:

My profit and Technical Analysis

I have been trading with TA since 2008 in Dhaka Stock Exchange! And after so many years of trading on and off(I didn’t trade from 2013 to 2017 in DSE),I can confidently say, I am a professional and ‘profitable’ technical analysis trader in DSE!

I consider myself a very skilled TA! I am mostly a profitable trader. Yes,I do make losses time to time(and it is very normal to make loss in the market!). But I keep my losses minimized by quickly cutting them off! At the end of the day,I remain ‘profitable’ and that is all that matters to me!

I have been sharing my ‘profit(and loss)’ with my close trader friends for a while now. A trader in my view is not skilled if he cannot make consistent profit in ‘live trading’! In my view, ‘consistent’ profit is a very very important concept!

Here is a portion of my trading. This year,though,I have traded with very small amount of money(my usual range is 30+ lakh tk),still,for me any trade is an important trade!

A trader should be transparent about his profit/loss,I believe! Especially,a Technical Analyst should prove that his claim to make profit with his technical knowledge is valid!!

If he can’t show that he is indeed making profit in live trading,then,there surely is something wrong with his trading style,ideas,strategies,or psychology!

I see a lot of so called “TA mentors” in our country now a days! Seeing their teaching,strategies, it is very evident to me that they struggle to make profit in the market! This is a bit disappointing,because I believe,if I cannot make profit with a strategy, I should not teach it to others!!!

Real trading is very very different than demo trading or teaching trading strategies!

In my view, technical analysis in Bangladesh sucks! So do Technical Analysts of Bangladesh!

profit_loss 2profit_loss 1

Why I don’t experiment anymore!!

I actually don’t like to ‘experiment’ with very new and unknown(to me) stuffs in trading. Because my time and knowledge are valuable and limited(I have grown older,btw!!!). I don’t want to spend both of these(time and knowledge) in things that may destabilize my present favorable positions in trading.
 
All the indicators and techniques/methods of trading that I use at the moment have evolved over the ten years of direct trading experiences and from extensive research and study. They have won the test of time,that is why,they are still there in my charts.
 
For example,all the sectoral charts that I use have given us very positive ‘results’ over the ten years,so I would rather not touch them and change them in any way. I don’t believe,the sectoral charts need even any slight tweaking at the moment,as they are doing what we intended them to do many years back. And clearly,they have won the test of time(till today)…..Yes,I agree that they have some issues,but I am ok with the issues!
 
I sometimes do tweak some of my indicators. But my tweaking happens to reflect my ‘experiences’ in charts from my own trading! And each tweaking happens based on my past experiences…..
 
My trading account fluctuates from 25 to 30 lach taka depending on the market situations. I don’t want to bet this money based on the new theories every now and then….That money has value and I want to utilize it on things that I personally understand very well and the methods that I know has worked over the longer period of time!! 😀
 
I am very very confident on the methods I use,as they are tested to be workable over the times. Like I have been claiming openly in public over the last ten years,DSE won’t be able to destroy my trading account. NOPE. NOT POSSIBLE!

The Intuitive Trader

I think,due to the lack of extensive knowledge or deep study/research,’intuition’ or gut feeling has got bad reputation in the world of Technical Analysis.

I see,intuitive trading is discouraged in most articles or books written on TA. I myself had ignored it or avoided it for many years like a bad thing!!
But in recent years,after going through several research based ‘how to learn’ something ‘books’ like “The Talent Code”,”Peak”, “Bounce,”Make it stick”,etc,I now know,that there is a very strong link between ‘practice’ and becoming expert.

All experts do things from their ‘intuition’ or gut. From the fastest bowler to the greatest scientists,all do things ‘unconsciously'(or what we know as intuitively). Do you remember how Newton discovered the gravity from the falling of an apple? Actually,his brain did the discovery quite intuitively…But behind this intuition lies his thousand hours of study,research and deep thinking. Same goes with Einstein.

What is happening here is: when someone practices something hour after hour,months after months,year after year,the brain makes the skill ‘unconscious’ by sending the learned skill in the limbic system. When brain stores the skill in the unconscious part of it,the skill becomes so automatic that it seems too ‘magical’ or intuitive. The skilled person at that point doesn’t really consciously know why and how or when he has become so skilled/magical…….But behind all of his abilities/skills lie hidden years of practice! His years of practice has become intuitive and he has become too automatic.

Note that many great traders actually had years of practice in trading. For example,Jesse Livemore, Tudor Jones,Warren Buffet,to name a few. Jesse Livemore started trading before his 20th,so did Tudor. They practiced trading so much consciously or unconsciously,that it became automatic or intuitive for them in the later parts of their life.

If a trader has to consciously make a choice in trading,he is not yet a ‘skilled’ trader. Period.

The trader needs to practice trading so much that his trading becomes too automatic or intutive. And when you ask him why he has taken a specific move in trading,he would respond to you: I don’t know. I just felt that it was the ‘right’ thing to do,so I did.

This ‘intuition’ or gut feeling is a very very precious thing to achieve. Years of PROPER and MINDFUL practice can beat any mechanical system out there! Human brain is so clumsy and limited. Still,we can beat the computer in many aspects. Why? One reason is our ability to think in ‘holographic’ way,which computer is unable to do(till today).

Our goal should be to:

– Trade so much that our brain get accustomed to all types of patterns and the pattern recognition becomes very automatic,and intutive.
– And we have to be very mindful of our skill development.
– It is ok to make mistakes and a lot of errors. Brain is powerful enough to correct itself. So,have faith on it.
– And these three things matter: Desire>>Faith>>Actions

Making things automated!

One of my PC remains ‘on’ all the times. And it does some automated tasks at the specified schedules! I believe,we should automate our daily tasks in PC as much as possible. Otherwise,we will be stressed out due to the load of huge pressure of a lot of tasks!!

Most of the automated big extractions,ie from DSE, happen at midnight,so the download speed is faster!

 

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